Simon Says Options

Layup Spread Options Trading

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Why Do Most Options Expire Worthless?

 

Answer: Options were created as a way to lose money!

Most amateur traders don’t realize this. Options were created as a way to hedge a position. They were created to act as insurance.

You probably already have several types of insurance: car, home, health, life, etc.

And you probably hate paying the premiums for these don’t you?

But what is worse than paying those premiums?

Having to actually use the insurance.

Because that means something bad has happened.

Options are used in trading the same way you use car insurance: as protection that you pay for, but you never actually want to use.

They were first introduced in the commodities space. Imagine you are a wheat farmer and you need to know what the price of wheat will be when your crop is ready to sell.

Prices fluctuate all the time.

As a farmer you could buy Put options on wheat as a hedge against falling prices. This way even if the price of wheat drops to zero and your crop is worthless, your Put options will make money and make up for the loss.

Or take the example of a toy manufacturer.



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Toys are made of mostly plastic which is made from oil and gasoline. In order for you to know your costs, you need to know what the oil and gasoline will cost in the future.

If they go up too much your toys will cost too much to produce and no one will buy them. So what you do is buy Call options on Oil and Gasoline.

That way even if the prices go up, your options will make money and you can use that money to offset the higher cost of materials.

In both scenarios, you want to lose money on your options!

You only wanted them as insurance. No one ever wants to collect on their insurance, because that means something bad happened.

Market makers and other traders are happy to sell these options because they know the odds are on their side and that the options will most likely expire worthless.

So you see, both sides know that the options will expire. And they are happy with it.

They did so well in the commodity space that stock traders wanted to use them too. So options were then introduced on stocks in the hopes of increasing trading and commissions. Boy did that pay off for the stock exchanges.

But that’s when speculators jumped in and started promoting options as a way to get rich.

And while it is possible to hit a home run with options once in a while, over the long term, buying options is a losing game.

Why?

The odds are against the option buyer.

At SimonSaysOptions.com, we are option sellers.

We find options that we think are going to expire and sell those.

This gives us high probability trades and very nice returns.

You can look at us as either the insurance company or the casino.

We are the insurance company because we sell insurance to folks who want to protect an equity position.

But mostly, we are the casino.

We let option buyers (suckers), make long shot bets that have very little chance of paying off.

The average option we sell has an 80% probability of expiring worthless.

So which would you rather be? The gambler (option buyer) or the house (option seller)?

Because we all know… the house always wins.


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Simon Says Bull and Bear

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Spill The Beans Research, LLC
19901 Southwest Freeway Suite 219
Sugar Land, Texas 77479
800-986-3250
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Option trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. We cannot and will not guarantee that you will not lose money or that you will make money from the information found on this website and / or affiliated products / services. Past results do not guarantee future results. You can lose money trading options and the loss can be substantial. Losing trades can occur, have occurred in the past, and will occur in the future. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Only risk capital should be invested since it is possible to lose all of your principal. Your use of this website and affiliated products / services is at your own risk. You should read "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" to further understand the risks of trading options. We are not licensed financial planners, financial advisors, stock brokers, investment brokers, or investment advisors. Before making any trades, check with a financial planner, investment advisor, tax advisor, or anyone else that controls your finances to make sure option trading is right for you. The information provided on this site should not be construed as individual investment advice. All information presented on this site is the opinion of the author only and is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security of any kind. Any issue or recommendation contained herein may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, any issue discussed herein is not guaranteed or endorsed by Spill The Beans Research LLC, not FDIC insured and may lose value. IMPORTANT NOTICE: These testimonials provide the perspective of individuals who are successful and/or enthusiastic about their experience(s). Testimonials are not representative of everyone's experience and provide information about the provider's experience(s) only as to that point in time in which they are provided. Although all testimonials are authentic and accurately represent the overall content of the testimonial, statements made in the testimonials have not been verified. Unique experiences and past performances do not guarantee future results! Testimonials herein are unsolicited and received no compensation; certain accounts may have worse performance than that indicated. Trading stocks, futures, options and spot currencies involves substantial risk and there is always the potential for loss. Your trading results may vary. Because the risk factor is high in options trading, only genuine "risk" funds should be used in such trading. If you do not have the extra capital that you can afford to lose, you should not trade in the options market. No "safe" trading system has ever been devised, and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Forex, Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.